Analysis

Deivi Garcia Will Win Rookie of the Year In 2021

The New York Yankees could have a hole in the rotation fixed with a Rookie of the Year caliber season by Deivi Garcia in 2021.

A lot of hype is surrounding the 2021 New York Yankees young starter Deivi Garcia. With how depleted the Yankees’ rotation is due to free agency, they’re going to need Deivi to step up next year. While asking a 21-year-old starter to burden a lot is quite risky, the Yankees have no choice. We know they’re not going to be as aggressive as they were in 2019, but Deivi can breakout. With the weird circumstances in 2020, Garcia is still a rookie, which means he can win Rookie of the Year. Given his potential and his pitch mix, I think he’s going to be your 2021 AL Rookie of the Year.

Deivi Garcia’s Flashes of Brilliance

We saw Deivi start out hot, with a 3.06 ERA, 3.70 SIERA, and 22.9% K-BB% over his first 3 starts. He looked like he could be a real factor in a playoff push, but he hit a rough patch. Against the Blue Jays, he had an okay start that was overshadowed by the offense ending a couple of careers on the Blue Jays’ pitching staff. Boston is where things got ugly. 6 runs in 3 innings with 8 hits was just a mess, and while he rebounded with an okay start against the Marlins, it messed up his total slate for 2020. Over a full 162, we could see those stats get evened out by a hot streak, but the flashes of brilliance as a pitcher show promise for Deivi in his second season.

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Facing Stiff Competition

Deivi’s first season in the majors was not at all an easy task. When you think about who Deivi Garcia had to face in 2020, it’s no surprise he had ups and downs. The offenses he faced in 2020 were not a joke at ALL:

Mets: 122 wRC+ (T-1st)
Orioles: 104 wRC+ (14th)
Blue Jays: 108 wRC+ (11th)
Red Sox :106 wRC+ (12th)
Marlins: 95 wRC+ (18th)

The only bad offense he faced was the Marlins, every other team he faced was one of the better lineups in the sport. His virtuoso performance against the Mets is even more impressive considering they were tied with the Dodgers in wRC+. It was a grueling start to a career, and he faced it well. I have no doubts that he will transition nicely in 2020.

Deivi Garcia is Defined By His Pitch Mix

It’s no surprise to anyone who follows the Yankees that Deivi is all about stuff, not about a 100 MPH fastball. While he certainly can get it up to 96, his actual movement is what’s most impressive. He is able to create a variance on his RPM in his fastball, with it getting up to as high as 3,000 or as low as 1,800. He is very dependant on control and his ability to catch batters off guard with 96 on the black after throwing 90, or breaking off a curve. He’s essentially defined by this philosophy, and when he is able to constantly change speeds and RPM, he is dominant. As a pitcher his arsenal is amazing, and it’s why he’s going to win Rookie of the Year.

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What Does Deivi Garcia Have to Do To Be Rookie of the Year?

Well, Deivi Garcia has to be able to be consistent and healthy, which would already put him in the running. If you get 28 starts out of Deivi, he’s basically a lock to at least finish top 10 in the voting. Now for the numbers? If he has a 3.60 ERA and FIP with decent peripheral stats, he’s going to be in the race for the award. With his volume and performance, he could be an instant favorite to win the award. If Deivi Garcia put up these stats, we could see him take home some Rookie of the Year hardware:

ERAFIPK-BB%fWAR
3.653.7021%3.7

Assuming that no one in the AL comes up and is an absolute freak of nature, Deivi could probably win the award with these numbers. Do I think it would be a failure for him not to win it? No, not at all, but if Deivi Garcia is who we all think he can be, he’s going to be gunning for Rookie of the Year.

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